There are two scenarios regarding the dawn of AGI. The first suggests an exact launch date, much like the debut of a new smartphone or large language model (LLM).
However, there is a growing belief in the second scenario, one where there is not a dramatic “magic moment” for AGI. Instead, it would emerge gradually as AI systems learn step by step, in a lengthy process involving numerous advances and adaptations.
When people look back from the future, they might realise that AGI quietly arrived without any company or individual making a grand announcement. This scenario resembles the rise of the mobile internet – an era that began when billions of people started accessing the internet through their smartphones.
In the first scenario, the United States is likely to lead the charge, as its tech giants still possess unmatched advantages in hardware and financial resources, positioning them to claim the holy grail of AI research. They are more likely to develop machines that can genuinely “understand” the world.
